An exiled prince and an ex-president are among the many high contenders who may ascend to energy in Iran if its Islamist regime topples after over 4 a long time of repressive rule, specialists instructed The Submit.
One title that has reemerged is Reza Pahlavi, the previous crown prince who fled to the USA in his teenagers a 12 months earlier than his household’s dynastic rule was overthrown within the revolution of 1979. Pahlavi, 65, who now lives in Maryland, has been cultivating relations with DC officers and the Iranian diaspora ever since.
“Pahlavi is an advanced character, however unquestionably he has a sure following within the nation,” stated Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer on the Iran desk.
“And nostalgia has elevated contained in the Islamic Republic,” he added. Because the Islamic Republic’s “charisma has cratered, Pahlavi’s standing has grown, if not skyrocketed,” he instructed The Submit.
When Pahlavi known as for individuals to protest on Jan. 8 and 9, he received 3.2 million likes and 88 million views on Persian Instagram.
The son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was in energy from 1941 to 1979 and who gathered huge wealth in workplace, penned an op-ed this week within the Washington Submit the place he known as for a “transition to democracy,” somewhat than reinstalling a monarchy that fell through the revolution.
“I’ve subsequently stepped ahead to steer and serve in that capability: not as a ruler-in-waiting, however as a steward of a nationwide transition to democracy,” he insisted.
And there are some who doubt whether or not somebody who has been away for therefore lengthy may command the required help contained in the nation, however some road protesters have been calling for his return following his name to motion.
Former President Hassan Rouhani is one other determine who may reemerge, specialists stated. The cleric who served as Iran’s seventh president from 2013 to 2021 was the primary Iranian chief to carry direct talks with a US president when he had a cellphone name with Barack Obama in 2013. He has taken warmth contained in the Iranian authorities for requires dialogue with the west.
Rouhani is now coming beneath “exhausting scrutiny” by the regime, in line with Iran skilled and activist Ali Reza Nourizadeh.
“They’re listening to his phone. They’re watching him. So subsequently they consider that the Individuals are speaking with individuals” inside Iran, he stated.
Yet one more rumored potential chief is Sayed Hossain Moussavian. He served as Iran’s ambassador to Germany beneath President Hashemi Rafsanjani, as spokesman for Iran’s nuclear negotiators from 2003 to 2005, and did a stint on the Princeton College of Public and Worldwide Affairs
Moussavian is one among many members of Rafsanjani’s clique with a well-honed “survival intuition,” stated Andrew Apostolou of the Britain Israel Communications and Analysis Heart.
Survival of the fittest can also decide the subsequent chief — who may emerge from one of many nation’s over one dozen authorities safety companies.
“It’s not going to be an individual per se. What forces can are available and take management of the streets?” stated Iran scholar Alireza Nader, president and senior adviser of the Nader Analysis Group in DC. “In the end, it’s forces on the bottom,” he continued.
“So long as the regime sticks collectively, they’re going to kill lots of people earlier than it involves that.”
