Republicans are rising more and more anxious over a as soon as sleepy particular election in Tennessee District 7 subsequent month in a district that President Trump comfortably gained by 22 factors final yr.
Whereas the congressional race has traditionally been a GOP shoo-in, Republicans are alarmed by a latest ballot and fearful that an upset may see their majority within the Home slip to a zero-vote margin.
“I’m very involved about it. After all, it’s an off-year election. It’s proper after Thanksgiving. Quite a lot of the Republicans are out of city. And I fear about them exhibiting up on Election Day,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), who represents Tennessee’s District 2, which encompasses Knoxville, instructed The Submit.
“It’s a razor-thin margin.”
Elevating the stakes of the Dec. 2 election is firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) latest retirement announcement.
If Democrats eke out an upset victory in Tennessee District 7, then proceed to win their two vacated seats in particular elections, the GOP’s Home majority may finally fall to 218 to 216.
Beneath that situation, Home Republicans wouldn’t be capable of afford any defections on partisan laws. Over the previous yr, they’ve typically had at the very least one, often from Libertarian-leaning Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) Moreover, the GOP’s Home majority may vanish earlier than the midterms if another rep retires early.
Additional fueling these considerations is a shock survey by Emerson Faculty Polling and The Hill out Wednesday that pegged the race in a lifeless warmth.
Republican Matt Van Epps solely bested Democrat Aftyn Behn — dubbed “AOC of Tennessee” — by 48% to 46%, which is inside the margin of error, the ballot discovered.
“I believe the polls are just a little bit deceptive, as a result of plainly older Tennesseans are voting and so they typically vote extra conservative than the youthful of us do,” Burchett admitted.
Nonetheless, Burchett, who has campaigned with Van Epps twice, cautioned Republicans to “remember” of the dangers.
“If it’s shut, that must be a sufficiently big wake-up name,” he added. “If [Behn] wins, I believe it might be devastating for us.”
The particular election in Tennessee follows a Democratic sweep within the off-year election, the place polling typically overestimated Republicans, significantly within the New Jersey governor’s race.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris raised eyebrows when she stumped for Behn earlier this month, indicating how some Democrats suppose the particular election is likely to be in play.
“Matt Van Epps will likely be a member of Congress,” Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spokesperson Reilly Richardson confidently instructed The Submit when requested about warning indicators within the race.
Some left-leaning operatives quietly doubt that Behn will win and allege that Republicans elevating fears are merely partaking in a ploy to gin up turnout and lay the groundwork to undermine what they anticipate will likely be a major Democratic overperformance.
“The Republicans are dumping over $1.5 million into this Trump +22 district in a determined last-minute try to keep away from a Democratic overperformance that may inform us what we already know — Republicans are going to lose the Home majority subsequent yr,” a nationwide Democratic strategist engaged on Home races stated.
The strategist added {that a} hypothetical Dem overperformance in Tennessee’s seventh Congressional District would show the GOP’s “agenda is traditionally unpopular even in deep Trump nation.”
Prime of thoughts for that strategist is the April particular election in Florida when Rep. Randy Nice (R) in the end prevailed by about 14 share factors regardless of GOP handwringing heading into the race.
Trump had seemingly been rattled sufficient by the GOP’s viability in particular elction races that he yanked his nod for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to function US ambassador to the United Nations.
The Tennessee seat had been held by Rep. Mark Inexperienced, who chaired the Home Homeland Safety Committee and stepped down in July after Republicans handed the One Massive Stunning Invoice Act. Inexperienced gained reelection in 2024 by simply over 21 factors.
Throughout his particular election marketing campaign, Van Epps, a former commissioner of the Tennessee Division of Normal Providers, has labored to focus on Behn’s lefty document.
5 years in the past, Behn had bashed Nashville on a podcast: “I hate town, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate nation music, I hate all the issues that make Nashville apparently an ‘it’ metropolis to the remainder of the nation. However I hate it.”
She additionally tore into Tennessee as a “racist state” in a 2019 op-ed within the The Tennessean and pushed to defund the police the next yr.
“Good morning, particularly to the 54% of Individuals that imagine burning down a police station is justified,” she wrote on X in 2020 throughout the protests and riots that swept the nation within the wake of George Floyd’s dying.
Behn, who has served within the Tennessee state Home since 2023, glossed over these social media posts when pressed on it by MS NOW, beforehand referred to as MSNBC, saying “I don’t keep in mind these tweets.”
“She’s an extremist,” Burchett chided. “And now she gained’t even tackle the quote she’s made in regards to the police and our navy and our border and every thing.”
