Republicans are in a robust place to select up congressional seats in New York in November, a defiant new GOP evaluation claims — whereas Dems laughed off the notion as “fantasy.”
The evaluation by the Nationwide Republican Marketing campaign Committee means that GOP gubernatorial candidate and Nassau County Govt Bruce Blakeman will run sturdy within the suburbs and upstate in opposition to Democratic incumbent Gov. Hochul — offering headwinds for social gathering Home candidates in among the areas’ swing districts.
“In New York, Republicans are within the strongest electoral place potential as a result of whereas Kathy Hochul and Zohran Mamdani run the Empire State into the bottom, Republicans are delivering,” stated NRCC Committee spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole.
“Taxes are down, communities are safer, and New Yorkers have President Trump and Republicans to thank for it.”
However the evaluation ignores how deeply unpopular Trump is within the state: A Siena School ballot launched final week discovered that solely 32% of New York voters view him favorably, whereas 63% view him unfavorably.
Within the suburbs, the place some key Home races are being held, solely 33% seen Trump favorably and 60% unfavorably.
New York State Democratic Occasion Chairman Jay Jacobs laughed off the GOP evaluation.
“I don’t suppose anybody goes to imagine this fantasy,” Jacobs stated. “Donald Trump is essentially the most unpopular president since Richard Nixon.”
However Blakeman gained re-election as Nassau County government final 12 months by a formidable 11 share factors after profitable 50.3% of the vote in 2021, when he toppled Democratic incumbent Laura Curran, the NRCC evaluation famous.
Republicans additionally swept each countywide workplace in Nassau on Lengthy Island in 2025.
Throughout the third Congressional District occupied by Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, Blakeman carried Suozzi’s hometown of Glen Cove.
In Home District 4, occupied by first-term Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, Republicans additionally recorded a clear sweep of the Lengthy Seaside Metropolis Council elections final 12 months, making the city council dominated fully by the GOP for the primary time in 54 years.
The Home GOP evaluation reveals that President Trump carried the third Home District by 4.3 share factors over Democratic presidential hopeful Kamala Harris in 2024 and misplaced District 4 by solely a half-percentage level.
In a shock, Suozzi solely squeaked by GOP former Assemblyman Michael LiPetri by 3 share factors within the Home District 3, which incorporates elements of Queens in addition to Lengthy Island, two years in the past.
LiPetri is the GOP nominee in what may very well be a aggressive rematch this 12 months.
However the Cook dinner Political Political Report, an unbiased grader of elections, stated Home District 3 “leans Democrat” this 12 months.
It additionally stated Home District 4 “leans Democrat.”
Gillen faces off in opposition to Hempstead Receiver of Taxes Jeanine Driscoll, whom the Nassau GOP nominated after Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, at present the inspector common within the US Labor Division, declined to run.
Regardless of profitable statewide by 6.4 share factors in 2022, Hochul misplaced to former Lengthy Island Rep Lee Zeldin by 8.5 factors in District 3 and by 5.8 factors in District 4, the GOP evaluation famous.
Within the Hudson Valley’s seventeenth District, two-term Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler faces a tricky re-election bid in opposition to Military veteran Cait Conley, who gained her Democratic major election final week.
Lawler gained re-election by 6 share factors in 2024 after toppling ex-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney in a squeaker in 2022.
Hochul misplaced District 17 to Zeldin by 3.2 share factors in 2022.
Within the upstate nineteenth Congressional District, Republican state Sen. Peter Oberacker is difficult first-term Democratic incumbent Josh Riley.
Oberacker’s state Senate district makes up 37% of NY-19, which the GOP claims provides him a shot to win the seat, in line with the NRCC evaluation.
Whereas favored to win a second full, four-year time period as governor after changing Andrew Cuomo, Hochul will not be well-liked. Within the Siena ballot, 43% view her favorably and 44% unfavorably.
However Hochul leads Blakeman 52% to 32% within the horse race for governor.
Jacobs, who additionally serves because the Nassau County Democratic chief, stated the GOP evaluation is flawed for ignoring present situations on the bottom versus specializing in prior years’s outcomes.
“You’ll be able to’t battle final 12 months’s struggle. You battle the subsequent one. Elections aren’t about years previous however in regards to the future within the now,” he stated.
